An Warning to Keir Starmer drawn from His Personal History: Without Boldness on Britain's EU Exit & Europe, His Party Challengers Might Be.

Seven years ago, a mere eight words to ignite a Labour conference demonstrating the party was falling out of love with Jeremy Corbyn. While not precisely soaring oratory, the words met with rapturous applause as delegates stood for spontaneous acclamation.

When the noise subsided, the then-Brexit spokesman, remained at the lectern, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "We are not excluding staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.

In that deeply polarized period in 2018, departing from the prepared script like this was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in working-class seats above the Europhile sentiments within Labour. With that single address, this grey-suited shadow Brexit secretary was transformed – albeit temporarily – into a risk-taker who championed the party's base against a leader he later succeeded.

The Shift of Stance and Closed Debates

Since then, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. An early move after taking over in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue had been settled by the previous year’s general election. And, at the last one, he consistently stressed unbreakable pledge promises that forbade rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Like his predecessor, his strategy has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in key seats, even if survey data suggests many of them have passed away or shifted opinion.

Pressure Building on Europe

Yet, it’s now the prime minister’s turn to be an embattled Labour leader. And, if EU relations is no longer the central crisis in UK politics, a lid that has been kept firmly shut since Brexit is beginning to rattle again.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up the rhetoric regarding the damage that leaving the EU has inflicted on the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who now rarely mentions his flagship policy was his primary goal and is still his sole political accomplishment.

Nevertheless, the extent of the economic harm, which by some estimates has resulted in a national economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller compared to EU membership, dwarfs the minor adjustments so far offered by ministers. The PM's much-touted relationship reset agreed with Brussels last summer provides gains measured in low decimal points.

Internal Pressure & Ambitious Proposals

Rachel Reeves is one of those attempting to bypass entrenched interior ministry opposition to a broader scheme designed to boost growth youth mobility scheme allowing youths can move between the UK and the EU to study or work.

David Lammy muses openly regarding the clear advantages of being in a customs union with the EU, while a dozen Labour MPs, such as the head of the Treasury select committee, recently supported an opposition proposal on customs union membership.

While Nick Thomas-Symonds, the minister in charge of UK-EU relations, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, maintains the firm boundaries remain unchanged, there exist avenues to work around them. One idea involves declaring the commencement of talks immediately for a more ambitious agreement, for inclusion in the following election platform, with implementation only if Labour won a new electoral mandate.

Starmer's Deep-Seated Scepticism

However, Starmer has lately been damping it all down on the idea by warning a return to an EU customs arrangement could undermine the trade pacts with the US, which he views as signature achievements of his government.

Reportedly that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, stemming from several key concerns.

1. Firstly, he thinks a customs pact is now significantly more difficult as ministers are actively diverging from European rules across a range of policy areas, including the environment.
2. Secondly, the prohibitive cost demanded from Britain for entry into a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse in talks has led UK negotiators that European nations are less interested in offering favorable terms to the UK and are more focused on demonstrating that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Lastly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is viewed by key advisors in Downing Street as grounds for the UK to maintain distance from the EU.

A Bizarre Document & Strategic Calculations

This strange and concerning American strategy paper asserts Europe is threatened by “civilizational erasure” because of immigration. It contains only one reference of the UK, found on a suggestion that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in our politics to foster the growth of nationalist movements.

However, instead of deciding that this makes America an undependable ally, ministers reportedly fear that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by endangering precarious American backing for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Leadership Speculation and The Ghost from the Past

This situation returns us to the conference of 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not a pitch for the leadership but merely an attempt to keep open the possibility of staying in the EU being on the ballot paper. In fact, back then, Starmer still favoured a tailored trade agreement of the kind he now appears to be opposing.

But it’s not been lost on the Prime Minister's office note that the Health Secretary, widely considered would stand for the leadership, is part of a clutch of cabinet ministers letting it be known they want to go further on Europe.

Staff for Angela Rayner, another probable runner in a contest to replace Starmer, maintain she won’t discuss her stance on a customs union as it would merely “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Clear Risk and A Prudent Memory

The risk is clear. Should the PM reject more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he cedes ground to claim the territory where most of the party's supporters are to be found.

It would be prudent for Starmer to remember the effect that a short phrase had for him seven years ago. Potential pathways for a major proposal on EU relations which the PM ought to consider; he should prise them open himself, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.