A United Ireland Plebiscite Should Not Become 'A Repeat of Brexit', Commentators Alert

A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.

"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."

Appeal for Broader Debate

Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."